Posts tagged Emotional Analysis
How Fear of Frexit Helped Macron Win the French Presidential Election
NEW Text Analytics PollTM Shows a Trump-Style Le Pen Upset May Have Been Averted by Overwhelming Opposition to a Frexit

Last week on this blog, I reported findings from a Text Analytics Poll™ of 3,000 French citizens showing that Marine Le Pen’s positioning going into the runoff looked remarkably similar to that of another recent underdog candidate, Donald Trump, just days before his stunning U.S. election upset.

Indeed, a similar set of circumstances appeared to be in play, as noted by the New York Times in an article on Election Day: “Populist anger at the political establishment; economic insecurity among middle class voters; public alienation toward mainstream political parties; rising resentment toward immigrants.”

Yet on Sunday, the French people elected Emmanuel Macron president over Le Pen by about 66/34. So why wasn’t the race closer?

The answer may be in data we collected from French and British respondents, which shows that the prospect of a Le Pen “Frexit” probably figured highly in Macron’s victory.

Positioning: Voting Against a Candidate

Our data in the French presidential poll were eerily reminiscent of data we collected prior to the U.S. election, which suggested a victory may not so much amount to an endorsement of one candidate as a rejection of the other.

Our analysis showed that first and foremost, the French associated Le Pen with bigotry and hatemongering, but text analysis also showed that among the French she was strongly positioned around immigration reform and putting France first—a platform that worked effectively for Trump, who had also been labeled a bigot in the minds of many Americans. In fact, the perception of Trump as a bigot was only slightly lower among Americans than the perception of Le Pen as a bigot among the French (11% vs 15%, respectively).

In contrast, respondents most frequently associated Macron with “liberalism”—meaning economic liberalism favoring free markets—followed by capitalism, neither of which is necessarily an asset in terms of positioning in French politics, particularly for a wealthy investment banker at a time when job security is a major concern among middleclass voters.

But the main platform issue that people associated with Macron—which trailed just behind people’s view of him as a proponent of free markets/capitalism—was Europe/EU, in stark contrast to Le Pen, who was well known to strongly favor an EU “Frexit.” The EU is also synonymous with the free movement of commerce and people, which, of course, stands in contrast to the dual protectionist/anti-immigration platform championed by Le Pen.

This, naturally, begged the question: How important is EU membership to the French population?

If the mood of the French electorate were anything like that of British Brexit voters, then favoring EU membership could be a liability. So just days ahead of the election we ran a second Text Analytics Poll—once again a single question—only this time we polled 3000 voters each in France and the UK:

  1. “What does the European Union mean to you?” (or “Qu'est ce que l'Union Européenne représente pour vous?” in French).

EU Membership Means “Hope”

It’s worth noting that turnout for this election was reportedly the lowest in 36 years. These were presumably voters who never would’ve cast a ballot for Le Pen, but who also could not be mobilized for Macron. In short, they were Macron’s to lose.

This new poll data helps explain why, in spite of inspiring lackluster confidence and support from anti-Le Pen voters, Macron nonetheless won the election by a sizable margin.

EU UK V FRANCE

While a significant number of the French tell us the EU means nothing to them, this is significantly lower than the Brits who say so.

Conversely, the French are more than five times as likely as Brits to say the EU means “Everything/A Lot” to them. The French are also far less likely than their UK counterparts to criticize the EU for corruption, wastefulness and such.

Instead, the French are extremely optimistic about the EU, with many indicating it provides “future hope” and keeps them out of wars and at “Peace” —something Brits are more likely to attribute to NATO.

High Positive Emotions for EU

Ultimately, emotions are what really drive behavior, and in the end, the French electorate’s highly positive emotional disposition toward the EU—notably their “Anticipation” and hopefulness—may have countered Macron’s relatively weak positioning in this election.

eMOTIONS TOWARD EU 2

Closing Thoughts

I read some responses to our original analysis that I’d characterize as emotionally overwrought. I understand that this is an occupational hazard for anyone conducting political opinion research, but our duty is to present and report objectively what the data tells us—even if what we’re seeing in the data isn’t necessarily pleasant.

The job of these polls was to assess the candidates’ brand positioning in the minds of voters, and to review the potential opportunities and threats in the “marketplace” as we would for any brand.

I want to stress that I am not discounting people’s distaste for Marine Le Pen’s perceived bigotry as being a key factor behind her loss in this election, but I’ll emphasize again that it was only slightly higher (15% vs 11%) than what we saw for Donald Trump, who, as you know, is now the President of the United States.

And at the end of the day, the hard truth is that more than a third of those who voted in this election voted for a right-wing nationalist—a candidate whose background makes Donald Trump look like a civil rights activist by comparison. Moreover, 25% of the electorate were not sufficiently affronted by Madame Le Pen’s politics to at least vote against her by voting for Macron; instead, they just abstained.

Like many people, I am relieved by the outcome of this election, but it seems clear from the positioning of both candidates—as reported by French citizens, unaided, in their own words—and the data on EU membership from our second poll that the French people did not simply reject Marine Le Pen because she is positioned as a racist/hatemonger; she was on the wrong side of Frexit.

@TomHCAnderson

*Note: n=3,000 responses were collected via Google Surveys 3/3-5/5 2017. Google Surveys allow researchers to reach a validated French General Population Representative sample by intercepting people attempting to access high-quality online content or who have downloaded the Google Opinion Rewards mobile app. Results are +/- 2.51% accurate at the 95% confidence interval.

Text Analytics Tips

About Tom H. C. Anderson Tom H. C. Anderson is the founder and managing partner of OdinText, a venture-backed firm based in Stamford, CT whose eponymous, patented SAS platform is used by Fortune 500 companies like Disney, Coca-Cola and Shell Oil to mine insights from complex, unstructured and mixed data. A recognized authority and pioneer in the field of text analytics with more than two decades of experience in market research, Anderson is the recipient of numerous awards for innovation from industry associations such as CASRO, ESOMAR and the ARF. He was named one of the “Four under 40” market research leaders by the American Marketing Association in 2010. He tweets under the handle @tomhcanderson.

Text Analytics Explores Whether All Culture Is Becoming American? Part 3
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Emotion Speaks Louder than Words Across 11 Cultures, 10 Countries and 8 Languages!

Welcome to Part 3 of our international, multilingual exploration of culture using text analytics!

In Part 1 of this series, I provided a topline analysis of comments from more than 15,500 people spanning 11 cultures in 10 countries and eight languages in response to one question:

“How would you explain <insert country> culture to someone who isn’t at all familiar with it?”

Part 2 took a deeper dive into the key similarities and differences among cultures in our study, revealing how respective members see themselves.

But things got really interesting when OdinText analyzed people’s comments for emotion. Here we have a bit of a surprise. One might expect people’s descriptions of their cultures to be generally positive and for the range of emotions to be fairly narrow, but this was hardly the case. In fact, the emotional analysis revealed much more than just people’s impressions of their own cultures; this exercise tapped into state of mind! You’ll see what I mean in the spider charts for our emotional analysis and verbatim* comments included below.

*Note: Verbatim comments are either translated or [sic]

U.S.A.  (High Positive Sentiment)

Americans are Angry! Twice as Angry as the international average. The Anger is accompanied by high levels of Fear/Anxiety and even Disgust, an emotion we don’t see often outside of food categories and which in this case appears to be related to the recent presidential election.

Joy is also lower than average (and trust is slightly below average), which begs the question: How could we also have a somewhat higher than average overall positive sentiment? The answer lies in a very polarized/divided populous, almost half of whom are bullish and joyful in their descriptions!

Emotion-Analytics-USA.jpg

[USA Emotions Blue - International Mean Red]

Verbatim examples:

“Expect cordiality and indifference equally, as well as politeness and kindness that may turn to anger and malice. We are all different, and reflections of the world around us. We expect to be treated fairly and bear grudges beyond what is necessary. Racism is a dread poison that has seeped into the veins of our country. While none truly want to take the antidote. There is no standard in our country, people are all different as America breeds individuality.” – FEAR/ANXIETY (and mixed emotion)

“the expression of self in the most obnoxious form one can think of…Fat, dumb and ugly, Loud and obnoxious, Donald Trump - the ugly American” – DISGUST

“I honestly don't know what American culture is. We're such a large country, not at all homogenous. I think we have regional cultures and I would be comfortable explaining southern culture to someone. In the south, most people are neighborly, incredibly polite, and have a strong sense of pride for their region. I would have said a unifying feature of American citizenry was out unified devotion to country, but even that is questionable at times. Overall, I think it depends where in America one is.” – TRUST

“Freedom. Even with all the stuff going on, we still have the best country in the world because we have freedom of speech, choice, and worship…” – JOY

UNITED KINGDOM (Average Positive Sentiment)

In the UK, emotion around culture scored pretty average with one notable exception: Fear/Anxiety registered almost twice as high as the international average (although neither was as pronounced as what Americans expressed).

UK-Emotion-Analysis.jpg

Verbatim examples:

“Difficult to say as different parts of Britain have different cultures… difficult to understand Polite hypocritical compassionate confusing people” – FEAR/ANXIETY

“We have a prime minister we didn't elect, England messed up Scotland independence, Brexit is a disaster but we never give up.” – FEAR/ANXIETY

“Unsure, confused and varied… It's dead” – FEAR/ANXIETY

[NOTE: comments like “unsure, confused and varied” is a common theme in many of the cultural descriptions, not just for the UK]

AUSTRALIA (Very High Positive Sentiment)

Australians described their culture as laid back, and the emotions they expressed back it up. Their comments contained far less (about half as much) Anger than the international average, lower Sadness and significantly higher Joy. Australian comments also don’t reflect much Surprise, with very few using terms such as “amazing.” Comments are more often relaxed (and often mention this term).

Emotion-Analysis-Australia.jpg

Verbatim examples:

“Its full of kindness, reslectfuly, courageness and happy” - JOY

“limited. But great mateship” – JOY

“Inclusive, relaxed, full of laughter” – JOY

“Laid back, relaxed and able to laugh at ourselves” – JOY

BRAZIL (Low Positive Sentiment)

Even though Carnival was a frequently mentioned feature in descriptions of Brazilian culture, life for Brazilians isn’t one big party. Brazilians’ culture comments are significantly more likely than average to contain Anger. They also contain fewer Trust mentions. Most of these sentiments involved frustration with corruption and/or crime. Paradoxically, at the same time, we found low instances of Anticipation and Fear/Anxiety, indicating Brazilians have somewhat resigned themselves or have grown accustomed to these conditions. Moreover, Joy is neither significantly lower nor higher than the international average.

Emotion-Analyis-Brazil.jpg

Verbatim examples:

“…Because of the [income] distribution … very Robin Hood, ie acceptable to steal from large companies and also the government. So bank robberies without victims are not perceived negatively by the population, stealing TV signals, tax evasion, political and corruption in general is high, there is strong prejudice against the poor. unqualified civil servants are lazy (stealing their government salaries) High use of pesticides in food, eliminating its nutrients.”  – ANGER (multiple examples)

“A mixture of cultures, and now with evil people in charge making it very difficult to live with the current culture” – ANGER

“good. I believe in Brazil, that one day it will be great” - JOY

FRANCE (Average Positive Sentiment)

French comments contain less Surprise than average. In other words, they are less likely than average to use terms like “amazing” and “extraordinary” to describe their culture. This may be because French culture, conceptually, is so familiar and established in the minds of the French, yet the opposing emotion to Surprise—Anticipation—is also not significantly higher than average. French comments describing their culture are also somewhat less likely than average to contain Anger.

Emotion-Analysis-France.jpg

Verbatim example:

“We cannot explain French culture. We can only share its ideology, although doing so has evident limitations. I consequently, and personally, see it as wealth gained by mixing cultures: extraordinary traditions gained through the people who have lived here before us. – SURPRISE (rare example)

MEXICO (High Positive Sentiment)

Mexicans exhibit a high level of positivity in describing their culture, with their comments containing almost twice the amount of Joy as the international mean. Similarly, their Anger is also almost half that of the ten-country aggregate. Mexicans are also notable for their amount of Surprise—almost three times the average!

Emotion-Analysis-Mexico.jpg

Verbatim examples:

“It is very rich and has many very beautiful and amazing things, traditions are super beautiful and have much biodiversity” – JOY and SURPRISE

“As a wonderful and amazing and different gift to what can be seen elsewhere in the world.” – JOY and SURPRISE

“Full of diversity and incredible things that transport you back in time to a magical place” – SURPRISE

“Mexican culture as a set of traditions and art that defined not only the beauty but the feeling of the nation is very particular as we have a very cheerful culture.” – JOY

SPAIN (Low Positive Sentiment)

When describing Spanish culture, the Spanish are three times less likely than others to mention issues related to Trust. Surprisingly, they also exhibit almost twice the average level of Sadness. And importantly, we found significantly higher amounts of Anger in Spanish comments about their culture, often related to corruption.

Emotion-Analysis-Spanish.jpg

Verbatim Examples:

“For me, the Spanish culture is summed up in the torture of an animal (bull) and very rich food like potato omelette and paella” - ANGER

“bulls, crisis, corruption, political thieves, injustice, cachondeo” – ANGER

“Culture rather low and in many cases ridiculous. Eat and drink like monkeys and hang as much as possible with whoever is around. Idiots, political vermin, thieves and plunderers posing as big cahunas, big wealthy guys, the magnates of oil companies. These guys at the oil companies, they are just clowns but because they work there they become very wealthy, they steal and get a lot of money from the oil companies. They are thieves, corrupt. They become rich. They call this success. Like Rafa Mora or Belen Esteban they are very mediocre people in this country. I am ashamed of these people.” – ANGER and SADNESS

GERMANY (Low Positive Sentiment)

Germans have far less positive sentiment in descriptions and about half the proportion of Joy compared to the international average. Like the French, there is also very little Surprise in their comments. It’s not that negative emotions like Anger and Sadness are significantly higher, but rather the lack of positive emotions is significant.

Emotion-Analyis-Germany.jpg

Verbatim Examples:

“Well organized, industrious, intelligent, technically well developed.” – JOY (infrequent example of German Joy)

“Conservative, many rules, precise but also pleasure in little things, family” – JOY (infrequent example of German Joy)

JAPAN (Very Low Positive Sentiment)

By “Very Low Positive Sentiment” we do not mean that Japanese sentiment was negative, but that the Japanese sentiment was absent. The Japanese are very reserved and conservative, so it should come as no shock that the degree to which they expressed emotions, generally, was significantly lower than average.

Emotion-Analysis-Japan.jpg

Verbatim Examples:

“Though it is the culture of an island isolated by sea, it is special in its ability to ‘mimic’, and therefore it has developed into a simultaneously unique and multifaceted culture” – JOY

“The origins of the great culture of the Samurai” – JOY

“Japanese culture is special in that it is mellow and refined and is characterized by many gorgeous things. For example, tea ceremony, calligraphy, flower arranging, etc., at first appear to be quite quiet and plain endeavors, however such an impression belies a perfection and refined beauty that exists therein.” – JOY

“Japanese culture is a culture of hospitality and care” – TRUST

CANADA-ENGLISH (High Positive Sentiment)

Peace of mind doesn’t appear to be much of a problem for English-speaking Canadians, whose comments reflected significantly low Anger and high Trust. They also exhibited significantly less Fear/Anxiety than the international average, and a modestly higher level of JOY.

Emotion-Analysis-Canada-English.jpg

Verbatim examples:

“Look great from the outside, is great on the inside. But does have its flaws. Not to mention prejudice, inequality and racism is still embedded in large portions of our culture. Media also does a great job of covering stories that don't matter and are not actually informing.” – JOY (mixed/modest)

“Canadians are usually warm and welcoming people. We are mostly immigrants and understand peoples needs and desires to strive for a better life. We tend to supposrt one another yet respect peoples privacy.” - TRUST

“Like America only with gun control, socialized health care, and French on the packaging. And a much cuter leader.” – TRUST

“Friendly, fair, safe and welcoming” – TRUST

CANADA-FRENCH (Lower Positive Sentiment)

The Quebecois’ level of Joy is significantly higher than the international average, but it’s accompanied by equally high levels of Anger and Fear/Anxiety. This combination was unique in our data, perhaps as it represents a strong, well-understood and distinct culture that is defensively positioned within a larger, somewhat opposing culture that sometimes feels threatening. Comments from French Canadians—in contrast to those of the actual French from France—contained quite a lot of emotion. There were also significantly higher levels of Trust, and Sadness scored slightly above average.

Emotion-Analysis-Canada-French.jpg

Verbatim examples:

“People welcoming, open and proud. rich and diverse culture.” – JOY

“Mixture of French European roots in a North American context. Culture which developed from a difficult kind, hard winter. But a warm and supportive culture, proud of its language on an English-speaking continent.” – JOY

“A welcoming culture, which focuses on French and fights for its rights. Who are past present and future is important. Which is multi-ethnic” – ANGER

“people proud of its language and its history. Quebec is slightly open, yet desperate to preserve its values.” – FEAR/ANXIETY

“We are tolerant but do not humiliate us. Our history is full of situations where we have been crushed but wounds heal slowly. We are proud revelers but we lack confidence in us. We need to assert ourselves in the world and we are receiving from everyone so obviously there is no danger for us.” – FEAR/ANXIETY

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What Have We Learned?

First of all, thank you to everyone for the incredible interest you’ve shown and for joining us on this journey!

While I’ll leave the final word on the cultural impact of globalization to anthropologists and others specializing in the study of culture, this surface-level read strongly suggests that we are becoming more alike. Multiculturalism, in particular, has become an important component of cultural identities across many countries and cultures. The data also obviously show that 1. significant differences endure, 2. their dimensions and 3. the degree to which they matter.

Somewhat surprisingly, the hero today may have been the emotional analysis, which told us that cultural identity is not necessarily a static construct, and that how people think about their culture at a given point in time is strongly influenced by current affairs and circumstances, hence the variation in emotions expressed and their intensity.

But what’s really striking about this exercise is that we were able to run these analyses and visualizations and glean all of these insights from data collected from a SINGLE open-ended question.

Look at how much we learned!

Imagine for a moment trying to collect this same information using a multiple-choice instrument. You’d need more than one, and I still don’t think it would be possible to achieve the same insights.

Then there’s the scale to consider. We analyzed responses from more than 15,500 peoplein their own words.

Lastly, we accomplished this using OdinText across 11 cultures, 10 countries and eight languages in fewer than two hours! (It actually took longer to prepare this blog post than it did to translate and analyze the data!)

In summary, research innovation today is generally assessed in three questions:

  • Is it better? Yes! This approach yielded insight that would have been impossible to achieve with a conventional, multiple-choice survey.

  • Is it faster? Yes! Manual coding alone would’ve taken days or weeks. OdinText did it in fewer than two hours.

  • Is it cheaper? Yes! This international project was affordable enough to conduct on a whim.

Whatever the size of your organization or your resources, this project demonstrates that you can now conduct, translate and analyze a multinational, multilingual study among key consumers in key markets and capture meaningful insights quickly, affordably and easily without even getting up from your desk using OdinText.

Contact us here to talk about it.

Thanks for reading. I’d love to hear what you think!

@TomHCAnderson (@OdinText)

About Tom H. C. Anderson

Tom H. C. Anderson is the founder and managing partner of OdinText, a venture-backed firm based in Stamford, CT whose eponymous, patented SAS platform is used by Fortune 500 companies like Disney, Coca-Cola and Shell Oil to mine insights from complex, unstructured and mixed data. A recognized authority and pioneer in the field of text analytics with more than two decades of experience in market research, Anderson is the recipient of numerous awards for innovation from industry associations such as CASRO, ESOMAR and the ARF. He was named one of the "Four under 40" market research leaders by the American Marketing Association in 2010. He tweets under the handle @tomhcanderson.

Text Analytics Picks the 10 Strongest Super Bowls Ads

New Text Analytics PollTM Shows Which Super Bowl Ads Really Performed Best Well, it’s been five days since the Super Bowl, and pretty much everyone has cranked out a “definitive” best-and-worst ad list or some sort of top 10 ranking. And frankly, I think a lot of them are based on the wrong metrics.

Without a doubt, what makes a Super Bowl ad great differs from what makes a “normal” ad great. So what exactly qualifies a Super Bowl ad as a success or failure?

We could look at purchase consideration or intent, likelihood to recommend, or any of a dozen or more other popular advertising metrics, but that’s not what Super Bowl advertising effectiveness is really about.

Word of mouth has always been a big one and nowadays that means social media buzz. But does buzz equate to success? Ask the folks at Budweiser or Lumber 84.

Bottom line: This is a very expensive reach buy, first and foremost, and it’s a branding exercise.  I’ve shelled out $5 million (plus production costs) for 30 seconds to make a lasting and largely unconscious impression on the world’s biggest television audience.

As far as I’m concerned there need only be three objectives then:

  1. I want you to remember the ad;
  2. I want you to remember it’s my ad;
  3. I want you to feel positive about it.

Whether or not my ad met all of these criteria can be answered with one single unstructured question in a Text Analytics PollTM and quickly be analyzed by NLP software like OdinText with more valid results than any multiple-choice instrument.

Why a Text Analytics PollTM ?

Using a Likert scale to assess recall or awareness will only provide an aided response; I can’t ask you about an ad or brand without mentioning it. So I don’t really know if the ad was actually that memorable. And while a quantitative instrument can tell me whether or not you liked or disliked an ad, it also won’t tell me why.

Conversely, I can get the “why” from traditional qualitative tools like focus groups or IDIs, but not only would those insights be time-consuming, labor-intensive and expensive to gather, they wouldn’t be quantified.

But if I ask you to just tell me what you remember in your own words using a comment box, I can find out which ad was truly memorable, ascertain whether or not you truly recall the brand, determine whether the ad left a positive or negative impression on you and get a much deeper understanding of why. I can achieve all of this using one open-ended question. And with text analytics software like OdinText, I can quantify these results.

Which Super Bowl Ads Did “Best”?

We asked a random, gen pop sample of n=4,535 people (statistics with a confidence interval of +/- 1.46) one simple question:

“What Super Bowl ad stood out the most to you and why?”

Author’s note: We ran this survey Sunday night and closed it Monday night. We were originally planning to post the results on Tuesday, but decided to postpone it in favor of sharing what we felt were more pressing results from a Text Analytics PollTM we had conducted around President Trump’s immigration ban.

As you can see in the table below, this one simple question told us everything we needed to know…

Top 10 Super Bowl Ads: Memorability of Ad & Brand, and Degree of Positive Sentiment

The following ads are ranked according to memorability—respondents’ unaided recall of both the ad and the brand—accompanied by positive/negative sentiment breakout (blue for positive, orange for negative) in reverse order. Author’s note: The verbatim examples included here are [sic]

#10 Pepsi

 

 

As the sponsor of the Lady Gaga halftime show, one might expect Pepsi to do very well, but Lady Gaga may have literally stolen the show from Pepsi! In fact, the halftime show was actually mentioned more often in the comment data than Pepsi, and the two were infrequently mentioned together. Meanwhile, Pepsi’s ads were relatively unmemorable and much of the awareness we saw was in the form of negative sentiment.

Author’s note: Interestingly, social media monitoring services like Sprinkler had reported Pepsi “owned” the Super Bowl ad chatter on social media. I’ll say it not for the first time: social media (aka Twitter) can be full of spam often generated by agents of the brand.

 

#9 Buick

This is a case where the star of the ad, Cam Newton, didn’t eclipse the sponsor. People liked the pro footballer playing with the little kids and the tie-in to football seemed to work well. We saw this with Tom Brady in a different ad, too.

Buick with Cam Newton, cute and funny

I like the Buick ad because it let a bunch of kids play football with Cam Newton.

So what’s not to like, you say? How did it garner even a 13% unfavorable rating?

cam newton pushed little kids

The buick commercial, the concept was boring

Buick, it was not even funny

 

#8 Skittles

 

Skittles, made my kids laugh

The Skittles ad because it was funny and sort of relate-able. It shows how far one is willing to do something for someone.

Humor generally always does well, so what’s not to like?

The skittles commercial it made no sense

skittles, stupid with the burglar

Skittles, it was creepy. And what was with the gopher at the end?

 

#7 T-Mobile

Popular and a little risqué… [Note Also, Sprint Ads were often mis-remembered as T-Mobile, perhaps Halo effect and a reason Sprint didn't make the Top 10...]

The T-Mobile ‘fake your own death to escape Verizon bill’ it was very funny, and got its point across very well

T-mobile. very funny parodying 50 shades of gray to Verizon ‘screwing its customers!’

T-Mobile with Justin. Maybe because I'm a T-Mobile subscriber? Or Justin Bieber was dressed so well in a suit, and then he starts dancing and jumping like a maniac. The contrast makes it funny.

T mobile add where guy faking death. Most memorable. Light hearted. Got point across.

BUT not everyone is a Belieber

The t mobile justin biber. It was kinda lame

T-Mobile w/Justin Bieber - inane, juvenile, bordering on insulting

T-Mobile Unlimited Moves. It wasnt funny and Justin Bieber looked like the six flags guy.

T-Mobile, awkward dancing as they attempted to appeal to teenagers

 

#6  Audi

Audi took on gender equality with an appeal to fathers of daughters. The resulting ad was memorable in 6th place:

The audi one because it was meaningful

Audi - moving story and loved the message of what to tell daughters!

Audi. I have a daughter

Audi - moving story and loved the message of what to tell daughters!

However, not everyone liked mixing politics or social issues with their football (as we will see again for some of the other top ads):

AUDI and 84 Lumber. Keep your political message out of my entertainment

Least liked Audi because it was a liberal ad

 

#5 Coca-Cola

Ironically, even without sponsoring the halftime show, Coca-Cola beat Pepsi.

The coke commercial was really meaningful and symbolic

Coca Cola because of the embracing of diversity

Coca Cola True portrayal of America's diversity

The coke ad. I liked the pro-refugee stance.

coke america is beautiful commercial, very admirable

Coca Cola Commercial because it's all about being connected

Coke , showing we are still interconnected regardless of ethnicity

I liked the coca cola ad at the very beginning. I've seen it before but I think the message is so powerful and the commercial is beautifully executed.

But the ad was not received well by many, likely in part due to the politically-charged climate. Several advertisers ran messages that struck people as being politically biased or advancing a political agenda—something not everyone cared for…

Didn’t appreciate Coca Cola trying to make a political statement

I didn't like the Coke commercial. They showed it two years ago and the year before.

Google and Coke because they shoved their political views into my face.

 

#4 Mr. Clean

Who would have predicted MR. Clean for fourth place? The brand made good use of humor, and it stood out from the other ads by targeting women (but appealed to members of both genders).

Mr clean, it was funny - Female

Mr. Clean because I'm bald -  Male

Mr. Clean, relatable, memorable, hilarious. -Female

The Mr. Clean commercial, it was funny, tasty, and got the point across. Incredibly well done ad. – Male

Mr clean because my wife pointed it out – Male

mr clean because it relates to family, and parents that stay at home and clean. it was family friendly - Female

mr clean everything else sucked – Gender Not Specified

Some men though didn’t see the humor and or get the point, calling it “weird”. It wasn’t really that they disliked it intensely; they just felt it wasn’t for them.

 

#3 Lumber 84

Not many had heard of this company before the Super Bowl, but I’ll bet you know who they are now. The third most memorable ad, yes, but more than half of those who remembered it had nothing nice to say!

First, among those who liked the ad:

It was so touching

Audi, 84 lumber, both showed compassionate ads

84 lumber - it's the only one I can remember

84 Lumber - Showed what America is actually supposed to be.

they were obviously trying to get across a non- traditional message that didn't seem to be advertising. Also it was beautifully and compellingly produced.

Lumber 84 showed that not everyone wants a wall and that we understand there is power in diversity.

But the execution confused people and whatever the intention, the sponsor stepped into a controversy. Here the emotional sentiment (particularly anger) ran high and was prevalent in comments like “romanticized crime” and “forced politics”:

The Journey 84 ad, it just left me confused

The 84 lumber commercial. It didn't make sense

it was about illegals sneaking into America, i won't be shopping their anymore

Lumber 84 because it was politically offensive

84 lumber, clearly a political statement and uncalled for

84 lumber, Made no sense, Not going to look something up

#2 Kia

Ironically, with other brands going serious and political, Kia poked some fun with help from Melissa McCarthy. Kia’s investment in humor and McCarthy paid off in a big way, scoring the highest combination of memorability and positive sentiment, although to an extent the comedian eclipsed the brand.

Loved melissa McCarthy because she is hilarious and i love her.

Kia it was funny and not somber like most the others

The Buick one, the world of tanks ones and the eco friendly Melissa one because they were the funniest

The one with Melissa McCarthy because it made me laugh

KIA becuase it didn't feel like it was trying to sell me anything, just entertain with brand placement

 

#1 Budweiser

Yes, Budweiser took first place in terms of recall, but the perception of a political bent cost the king of beers. The ad, which featured one of the founders struggling as an immigrant, was apparently in the works before the Trump Immigration Order controversy. But even if that was the case, by choosing to air it Budweiser took a risk.

Likes:

I liked the Budweiser commercial reminded us all that not all white Europeans were always welcome in the US.

Budweiser. I love the reminder that we are all immigrants

Budweiser immigration. Shows Trump is an idiot, but we all know that

The Budweiser ad about how they were founded by an immigrant, because it was actually relevant to their company history

Budweiser, it was a beautiful immigrant's tale. Not overtly political

The Budweiser commercial because it shows what a true immigrant had to go through and even though many people thought it was to take a shot at Trump's travel ban it had nothing to do with it.

Dislikes:

Budweiser. Too liberal.

budweiser, too pro immigration

bud, adolfus was not ILLEGAL !

The Budweiser ad about immigration. Too political.

Budweiser, they shot themselves in the foot being that the man who immigrated into the U.S. did so legally.

Budweiser. Football/all sports should not involve politics. We need to relax sometimes.

So…who won?

Isn’t it obvious? I’d say Kia. Sure, Budweiser scored higher unaided awareness, but a significant portion of that was negative.

But it's all in the data, what do you think?

A Final Note on Text Analytics PollsTM 

It occurred to me in writing this post that about 11 years ago almost to the day I predicted that the survey of the future would be a one-question open-end, because that’s all people really want to tell you, and that’s all you’ll need.

Turns out I may have been right.

This week, we’ve shared results from three such surveys, a technique we've dubbed “Text Analytics PollTM .

These incredibly short, one-question polls allow us to field quickly to large samples with minimal burden on the respondent. And text analysis software such as OdinText enables us to quantify these huge quantities of comments.

But the real advantage to using text analytics polls is that the responses tell us so much more than whether someone agrees/disagrees or likes/dislikes. Using text analytics we can uncover why from respondents in their own words.

Thanks again for reading!

@TomHCAnderson @OdinText

Could a text analytics poll answer your burning marketing questions?  Contact us to see if a single-question open-ended survey makes sense for you!

 

About Tom H. C. Anderson

Tom H. C. Anderson is the founder and managing partner of OdinText, a venture-backed firm based in Stamford, CT whose eponymous, patented SAS platform is used by Fortune 500 companies like Disney, Coca-Cola and Shell Oil to mine insights from complex, unstructured and mixed data. A recognized authority and pioneer in the field of text analytics with more than two decades of experience in market research, Anderson is the recipient of numerous awards for innovation from industry associations such as CASRO, ESOMAR and the ARF. He was named one of the "Four under 40" market research leaders by the American Marketing Association in 2010. He  tweets under the handle @tomhcanderson.

 

 

 

Who Are You Voting Against?

Text Analysis Shows Dislike May Decide Presidential Election (A Text Analytics PollTM ) Exit pollsters today will ask thousands of Americans “Who did you vote for?” when they probably should be asking “Who did you vote against?”

A survey we just completed suggests that the outcome of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election may hinge on which candidate is disliked more intensely by the other side.

One simple question posed interchangeably for the candidates produced such an unexpectedly visceral emotional reaction that one could reasonably conclude a vote for either candidate in many cases may be primarily about preventing the other candidate from being elected.

More than Just the Lesser of Two Evils

They’re both unpopular. We knew that already.

A slew of polls going back to the start of the general election and most recently by Washington Post/ABC News have repeatedly indicated that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the two least popular candidates for U.S. president in the history of political polling.

What conventional, multiple-choice polling does not reveal, although it certainly supports this conclusion, is that apparently this election will not just be a matter of just holding one’s nose and voting for the lesser of two evils.

Unaided responses to one open-ended question analyzed using OdinText suggest that what may drive many voters to cast their ballots for either candidate today is an intense distaste for the alternative.

People’s distaste for each candidate is so intense that when asked to tell us what Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump stands for, respectively, respondents didn’t name a policy issue, they named a character flaw.

Top of Mind: The Crook and the Hatemonger

We took a general population sample* of 3000 Americans via Google surveys, split it in half randomly, and asked each half the same single question substituting only the candidate’s name:

“Without looking, off the top of your mind, what issues does [insert candidate name] stand for?”

The comments—presumably the issues that are truly top of mind for people in this election—were analyzed with OdinText and are captured in the chart below.

odintexttrumpclintonissues

You’ll note that for each candidate (red for Trump, blue for Clinton), respondents frequently offered a negative character perception instead of naming a political issue or policy supported by the candidate.

Indeed, the most popular response for Hillary Clinton involved the perception of dishonesty/corruption and the third most popular response for Donald Trump was perceived racism/hatemongering.

In both cases, the data tell us that people are unusually fixated on perceived problems they have with the candidates personally.

More Joy, Less Anger for Trump

Though the responses tended to be short and direct, a look at the words used to describe the candidates provides a pretty clear picture of the emotions associated with each candidate.

The OdinText visualization below shows the most striking emotional differences between Clinton and Trump around respondents’ levels of joy and anger. [See OdinText Emotions Plot Below, Trump Red, Clinton Blue]

clintonvstrumptextanalytics

While descriptions for both candidates exhibit a lot of anger, the proportion of anger in comments for Clinton is significantly higher (16.4% VS 12.3% for Trump).

The higher level of joy identified in this analysis is partly due to Trump’s positive campaign slogan “Make America Great Again,” which had significantly higher recall among respondents than Clinton’s slogan “Stronger Together.” Among those surveyed, 33 people in our sample specifically referenced the Trump slogan, while only one person referenced Clinton’s slogan—a notable difference in percentage terms (2.2% vs 0.07%, respectively)

More Effective Messaging for Trump

In terms of actual issues identified by respondents, Clinton was most often associated with championing women and civil rights, while Trump was identified with immigration and a pro-America, protectionist platform.

Here one could argue that the Trump campaign has done a more effective job of establishing a signature issue for the candidate.

While neither campaign has done a significantly better job of educating voters on its candidate’s policies than the other (8.2% vs 8.6% for Trump and Clinton, answering “I don’t know”), it may be that the simple message of “Make America Great Again” has clearer meaning to people than Clinton’s “Stronger Together.”

Indeed, the top issue identified for Trump was immigration (12.8% VS 2.3% for Clinton), while the number one issue for Clinton was the negative trait “corruption/lies” (12.5% VS. 1.4% for Trump).

This may prove problematic for the Clinton camp.

When voters don’t like their choices, they tend to stay home. If voter turnout is high today, it won’t be because people are unusually enthusiastic about the candidates; it will be because one of these candidates is so objectionable that people can’t in good conscience abstain from voting.

@TomHCAnderson

 

[*Note: N=3,000 responses were collected via Google Surveys 11/5-11/7 2016. Google Surveys allow researchers to reach a validated (U.S. General Population Representative) sample by intercepting people attempting to access high-quality online content—such as news, entertainment and reference sites—or who have downloaded the Google Opinion Rewards mobile app. These users answer up to 10 questions in exchange for access to the content or Google Play credit. Google provides additional respondent information across a variety of variables including source/publisher category, gender, age, geography, urban density, income, parental status, response time as well as google calculated weighting. All 3,000 comments where then analyzed using OdinText to understand frequency of topics, emotions and key topic differences. Out of 65 topics total topics identified using OdinText 19 topics were mentioned significantly more often for Clinton, and 21 topics were significantly more often mentioned for Trump. Results are +/- 2.51% accurate at the 95% confidence interval. ]